Northern Ethiopia has witnessed a series of changing political and military alliances in recent years, particularly following the Tigray conflict, as regional governments, federal authorities and armed groups have adjusted their relationships in response to evolving security and political realities.
The conflict, which began in 2020, initially involved Ethiopia's federal government and its allies fighting the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). After the Pretoria Peace Agreement in 2022, large-scale fighting declined, but tensions over territory, political influence and security arrangements persisted.
Since then, alliances have continued to shift. Relations between the federal government and some regional actors have changed as disputes emerged over issues such as the status of contested territories, regional autonomy, the integration of armed forces and the implementation of the peace agreement. At the same time, neighbouring Eritrea, which had supported federal forces during the war, has remained an influential player in the region's security dynamics.
The situation has become more complex with the involvement of local militias, regional security forces and political movements, each pursuing different objectives. These competing interests have made it difficult to establish lasting stability, even after the formal peace agreement.
Analysts say the changing alliances reflect a broader struggle over political power, security and governance in northern Ethiopia. They warn that unless outstanding disputes are resolved through dialogue and the peace agreement is fully implemented, the region could continue to face instability despite the end of major hostilities.