Fighting between Yemen’s internationally recognised government and the Houthi armed group has sharply intensified, raising fears that Yemen’s fragile truce could collapse and that the country could return to a much wider civil war. On August 18, the government said its forces had carried out 133 military operations against Houthi positions and personnel within 24 hours.
What is happening?
The latest escalation is taking place across several fronts in Yemen. Government forces, which are backed by a Saudi-led coalition, have increased military operations against the Houthis, who control the capital, Sanaa, and large parts of northern and western Yemen.
The government says its latest offensive is aimed at weakening Houthi military capabilities. The escalation follows a series of Houthi attacks against government-held areas and Saudi-linked targets.
The Houthis have also stepped up their attacks. In one recent incident, they launched missiles against a commercial vessel near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, killing six people, including four crew members and two Yemeni fighters involved in the rescue operation.
Why has the fighting intensified?
The renewed fighting is connected to both Yemen's internal conflict and the wider regional war.
Tensions began rising in late June as the United States and Iran became involved in a broader military confrontation. Both the Yemeni government and the Houthis began mobilising forces, raising fears that the regional conflict could reignite Yemen's own war.
The Houthis are closely aligned with Iran, while Yemen's internationally recognised government is supported by Saudi Arabia and other regional allies. This has made Yemen an important part of the wider power struggle in the Middle East.
What has happened to the ceasefire?
Yemen experienced a significant reduction in fighting after a 2022 truce. Although that truce did not produce a permanent peace agreement, large-scale ground fighting declined considerably.
The recent escalation threatens to reverse those gains. The UN has warned that Yemen faces a serious risk of returning to large-scale conflict.
Government forces have suffered serious casualties in recent Houthi attacks. Yemeni government sources reported that at least 30 government soldiers were killed in Houthi attacks on military camps in Marib and Hadramout earlier this month.
Why is the Red Sea important?
The conflict is also affecting one of the world's most important maritime routes.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, is a major route for international shipping between Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Houthi attacks on vessels have increased the risks to commercial shipping and could disrupt global trade and energy supplies.
Recent Houthi attacks have also targeted Saudi-linked shipping. The escalation has forced some vessels to reconsider routes through the Red Sea, increasing shipping costs and adding pressure to already disrupted global supply chains.
What could happen next?
The biggest concern is that the fighting could develop into a full-scale renewed civil war.
If government forces continue their offensive and the Houthis respond with more missile and drone attacks, the conflict could spread to additional parts of Yemen. It could also draw Saudi Arabia and other regional powers more deeply into the fighting.
There is also a risk that the conflict will become increasingly connected to the wider confrontation involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States and other regional powers.
For now, the situation remains highly unstable. The UN and other international actors are likely to face increasing pressure to prevent the latest escalation from destroying the relative calm Yemen experienced since 2022.
In short: Yemen is witnessing its most serious escalation in years. The internationally recognised government is intensifying attacks against the Houthis, while the Houthis are responding with missiles and drones. The central question now is whether the fighting can be contained, or whether Yemen will slide back into a full-scale war.