The joint United States and Israel strikes on Iran have raised alarm among energy markets because they risk disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but critically important waterway through which a huge share of the world’s oil and gas is shipped.
The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and handles roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil a day, about one-fifth of global oil supply, plus substantial natural gas shipments. Any sustained disruption could sharply tighten available supplies and push prices much higher.
After the strikes, there were reports of tankers avoiding the strait and warnings from Iran’s navy advising ships not to transit the area due to heightened military risk. Some vessels have paused or reversed course, signalling early signs of maritime disruption.
Analysts warn that even the threat of a blockade or partial closure can trigger price spikes as traders price in the risk of supply loss. Oil prices have already surged, and forecasts suggest that, without a quick de-escalation, Brent crude could rise toward or above $100 per barrel, with broader knock-on effects for inflation and the global economy.
Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would not only affect crude supply but could also increase shipping and insurance costs, slow freight movements and pressure energy-dependent industries worldwide, highlighting how geopolitical conflict in the Middle East can quickly ripple through global markets.